Dresden Germany
Expected first-bloom dates for spring 2027, based on a degree-day temperature model and years of observations. 16 Oct 2026 status shown.
| Flower | Status today | Expected start | Likely range | Reliability | Model error (backtest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilac | Season over | ~1 May 2027 | 23 Apr – 7 May | validated | 2.26 d |
| Forsythia | Season over | ~24 Mar 2027 | 10 Mar – 10 Apr | validated | 4.38 d |
| Wood anemone | Season over | ~26 Mar 2027 | 20 Mar – 4 Apr | validated | 4.04 d |
| Sweet cherry blossom | Season over | ~15 Apr 2027 | 6 Apr – 23 Apr | validated | 2.73 d |
| Horse chestnut | Season over | ~30 Apr 2027 | 23 Apr – 8 May | validated | 2.26 d |
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Lilac in Dresden validated
Season over. Next expected start ~1 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 23 Apr 2027 – 7 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~20 days (measured in Sweden).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 2.26 days; 97% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.94 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Forsythia in Dresden validated
Season over. Next expected start ~24 Mar 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 10 Mar 2027 – 10 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
Backtested against 34 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 4.38 days; 68% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±9.39 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 34 years at this city (1992–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Wood anemone in Dresden validated
Season over. Next expected start ~26 Mar 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 20 Mar 2027 – 4 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~36 days (measured in Sweden).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 4.04 days; 74% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.89 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Sweet cherry blossom in Dresden validated
Season over. Next expected start ~15 Apr 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 6 Apr 2027 – 23 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~13 days.
Backtested against 11 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 2.73 days; 82% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±4.7 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 11 years at this city (1991–2015).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Horse chestnut in Dresden validated
Season over. Next expected start ~30 Apr 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 23 Apr 2027 – 8 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 2.26 days; 94% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.99 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
“Start” = first flowers open (BBCH 60), not the peak. Peak is usually later; we have no open peak data. Individual gardens differ by ±4–8 days from the city median. See How it works and Sources.