Gothenburg Sweden
Expected first-bloom dates for spring 2027, based on a degree-day temperature model and years of observations. 25 Apr 2027 status shown.
| Flower | Status today | Expected start | Likely range | Reliability | Model error (backtest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilac | Not yet | ~17 May 2027 | 9 May – 22 May | validated | 4.67 d |
| Forsythia | Season over | ~4 Apr 2028 | 25 Mar – 23 Apr | approximate | n/a |
| Wood anemone | Blooming | ~4 Apr 2027 | 27 Mar – 17 Apr | approximate | 6.44 d |
| Sweet cherry blossom | Soon | ~28 Apr 2027 | 19 Apr – 9 May | approximate | 4 d |
| Horse chestnut | Not yet | ~18 May 2027 | 10 May – 23 May | approximate | n/a |
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Lilac in Gothenburg validated
Expected start ~17 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 9 May 2027 – 22 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~20 days.
Backtested against 12 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 4.67 days; 75% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±6.11 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 12 years at this city (2010–2022).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Forsythia in Gothenburg approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~4 Apr 2028. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 25 Mar 2028 – 23 Apr 2028. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
No (or far too few) usable open observations in this country for this flower; the model parameters were fitted on German data and transferred and are unchecked here. In our lilac test, transferring the German model to Sweden was off by about 4 days on average (bias about +3.8 days). Model parameters: transferred from Germany.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): not measured.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): not measured. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 0 years at this city.
No local observation series to show for this flower here.
Wood anemone in Gothenburg approximate
Expected in bloom now (started ~4 Apr, ends ~10 May). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 27 Mar 2027 – 17 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~36 days.
Not called validated: backtest error 6.44 days is above our 5-day bar.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 6.44 days; 53% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±7.57 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 17 years at this city (2008–2024).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Sweet cherry blossom in Gothenburg approximate
Expected to start in ~3 days (~28 Apr 2027). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 19 Apr 2027 – 9 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~16 days.
Not called validated: only 4 years of local observations for this city.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 4 days; 50% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±8.67 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 4 years at this city (2011–2014).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Horse chestnut in Gothenburg approximate
Expected start ~18 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 10 May 2027 – 23 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
No (or far too few) usable open observations in this country for this flower; the model parameters were fitted on German data and transferred and are unchecked here. In our lilac test, transferring the German model to Sweden was off by about 4 days on average (bias about +3.8 days). Model parameters: transferred from Germany.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): not measured.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): not measured. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 2 years at this city (2009–2016).
No local observation series to show for this flower here.
“Start” = first flowers open (BBCH 60), not the peak. Peak is usually later; we have no open peak data. Individual gardens differ by ±4–8 days from the city median. See How it works and Sources.