Leipzig Germany
Expected first-bloom dates for spring 2027, based on a degree-day temperature model and years of observations. 25 Apr 2027 status shown.
| Flower | Status today | Expected start | Likely range | Reliability | Model error (backtest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilac | Soon | ~28 Apr 2027 | 19 Apr – 7 May | validated | 2.56 d |
| Forsythia | Season over | ~22 Mar 2028 | 8 Mar – 8 Apr | approximate | 5.09 d |
| Wood anemone | Blooming | ~25 Mar 2027 | 19 Mar – 4 Apr | validated | 4.83 d |
| Sweet cherry blossom | Blooming | ~14 Apr 2027 | 5 Apr – 22 Apr | validated | 3.53 d |
| Horse chestnut | Soon | ~29 Apr 2027 | 21 Apr – 8 May | validated | 2.43 d |
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Lilac in Leipzig validated
Expected to start in ~3 days (~28 Apr 2027). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 19 Apr 2027 – 7 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~20 days (measured in Sweden).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 2.56 days; 94% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±6.14 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Forsythia in Leipzig approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~22 Mar 2028. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 8 Mar 2028 – 8 Apr 2028. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
Not called validated: backtest error 5.09 days is above our 5-day bar.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 5.09 days; 56% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±9.97 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 34 years at this city (1992–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Wood anemone in Leipzig validated
Expected in bloom now (started ~25 Mar, ends ~30 Apr). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 19 Mar 2027 – 4 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~36 days (measured in Sweden).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 4.83 days; 66% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±6.49 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Sweet cherry blossom in Leipzig validated
Expected in bloom now (started ~14 Apr, ends ~27 Apr). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 5 Apr 2027 – 22 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~13 days.
Backtested against 19 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 3.53 days; 79% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.79 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 19 years at this city (1991–2013).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Horse chestnut in Leipzig validated
Expected to start in ~4 days (~29 Apr 2027). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 21 Apr 2027 – 8 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 2.43 days; 94% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.84 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
“Start” = first flowers open (BBCH 60), not the peak. Peak is usually later; we have no open peak data. Individual gardens differ by ±4–8 days from the city median. See How it works and Sources.