Linköping Sweden
Expected first-bloom dates for spring 2027, based on a degree-day temperature model and years of observations. 25 Apr 2027 status shown.
| Flower | Status today | Expected start | Likely range | Reliability | Model error (backtest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilac | Not yet | ~21 May 2027 | 12 May – 25 May | validated | 2.31 d |
| Forsythia | Blooming | ~14 Apr 2027 | 6 Apr – 30 Apr | approximate | n/a |
| Wood anemone | Blooming | ~8 Apr 2027 | 31 Mar – 21 Apr | validated | 5 d |
| Sweet cherry blossom | Soon | ~4 May 2027 | 26 Apr – 12 May | validated | 1.94 d |
| Horse chestnut | Not yet | ~22 May 2027 | 13 May – 26 May | approximate | n/a |
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Lilac in Linköping validated
Expected start ~21 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 12 May 2027 – 25 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~20 days.
Backtested against 8 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 2.31 days; 88% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±3.77 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 8 years at this city (2010–2018).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Forsythia in Linköping approximate
Expected in bloom now (started ~14 Apr, ends ~28 Apr). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 6 Apr 2027 – 30 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
No (or far too few) usable open observations in this country for this flower; the model parameters were fitted on German data and transferred and are unchecked here. In our lilac test, transferring the German model to Sweden was off by about 4 days on average (bias about +3.8 days). Model parameters: transferred from Germany.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): not measured.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): not measured. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 0 years at this city.
No local observation series to show for this flower here.
Wood anemone in Linköping validated
Expected in bloom now (started ~8 Apr, ends ~14 May). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 31 Mar 2027 – 21 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~36 days.
Backtested against 14 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 5 days; 64% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±6.31 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 14 years at this city (2009–2024).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Sweet cherry blossom in Linköping validated
Expected to start in ~9 days (~4 May 2027). Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 26 Apr 2027 – 12 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~16 days.
Backtested against 9 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 1.94 days; 89% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.49 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 9 years at this city (2013–2024).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Horse chestnut in Linköping approximate
Expected start ~22 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 13 May 2027 – 26 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
No (or far too few) usable open observations in this country for this flower; the model parameters were fitted on German data and transferred and are unchecked here. In our lilac test, transferring the German model to Sweden was off by about 4 days on average (bias about +3.8 days). Model parameters: transferred from Germany.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): not measured.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): not measured. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 0 years at this city.
No local observation series to show for this flower here.
“Start” = first flowers open (BBCH 60), not the peak. Peak is usually later; we have no open peak data. Individual gardens differ by ±4–8 days from the city median. See How it works and Sources.