Malmö Sweden
Expected first-bloom dates for spring 2027, based on a degree-day temperature model and years of observations. 16 Oct 2026 status shown.
| Flower | Status today | Expected start | Likely range | Reliability | Model error (backtest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilac | Season over | ~12 May 2027 | 7 May – 19 May | approximate | 5.58 d |
| Forsythia | Season over | ~29 Mar 2027 | 16 Mar – 20 Apr | approximate | n/a |
| Wood anemone | Season over | ~1 Apr 2027 | 25 Mar – 14 Apr | validated | 3.91 d |
| Sweet cherry blossom | Season over | ~23 Apr 2027 | 11 Apr – 3 May | approximate | 6.5 d |
| Horse chestnut | Season over | ~14 May 2027 | 8 May – 20 May | approximate | n/a |
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Lilac in Malmö approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~12 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 7 May 2027 – 19 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~20 days.
Not called validated: only 6 years of local observations for this city; backtest error 5.58 days is above our 5-day bar.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 5.58 days; 50% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±7.1 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 6 years at this city (2008–2019).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Forsythia in Malmö approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~29 Mar 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 16 Mar 2027 – 20 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
No (or far too few) usable open observations in this country for this flower; the model parameters were fitted on German data and transferred and are unchecked here. In our lilac test, transferring the German model to Sweden was off by about 4 days on average (bias about +3.8 days). Model parameters: transferred from Germany.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): not measured.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): not measured. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 0 years at this city.
No local observation series to show for this flower here.
Wood anemone in Malmö validated
Season over. Next expected start ~1 Apr 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 25 Mar 2027 – 14 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~36 days.
Backtested against 16 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 3.91 days; 75% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±6.16 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 16 years at this city (2009–2024).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Sweet cherry blossom in Malmö approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~23 Apr 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 11 Apr 2027 – 3 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~16 days.
Not called validated: only 5 years of local observations for this city; backtest error 6.5 days is above our 5-day bar.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 6.5 days; 40% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±10.1 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 5 years at this city (2011–2020).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Horse chestnut in Malmö approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~14 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 8 May 2027 – 20 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
No (or far too few) usable open observations in this country for this flower; the model parameters were fitted on German data and transferred and are unchecked here. In our lilac test, transferring the German model to Sweden was off by about 4 days on average (bias about +3.8 days). Model parameters: transferred from Germany.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): not measured.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): not measured. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 2 years at this city (2011–2015).
No local observation series to show for this flower here.
“Start” = first flowers open (BBCH 60), not the peak. Peak is usually later; we have no open peak data. Individual gardens differ by ±4–8 days from the city median. See How it works and Sources.