Munich Germany
Expected first-bloom dates for spring 2027, based on a degree-day temperature model and years of observations. 16 Oct 2026 status shown.
| Flower | Status today | Expected start | Likely range | Reliability | Model error (backtest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilac | Season over | ~6 May 2027 | 25 Apr – 11 May | validated | 3.09 d |
| Forsythia | Season over | ~28 Mar 2027 | 15 Mar – 11 Apr | validated | 4 d |
| Wood anemone | Season over | ~29 Mar 2027 | 21 Mar – 4 Apr | validated | 3.97 d |
| Sweet cherry blossom | Season over | ~16 Apr 2027 | 8 Apr – 26 Apr | validated | 3.11 d |
| Horse chestnut | Season over | ~4 May 2027 | 25 Apr – 10 May | validated | 2.43 d |
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Lilac in Munich validated
Season over. Next expected start ~6 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 25 Apr 2027 – 11 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~20 days (measured in Sweden).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 3.09 days; 86% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.93 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Forsythia in Munich validated
Season over. Next expected start ~28 Mar 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 15 Mar 2027 – 11 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 4 days; 69% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±9.13 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Wood anemone in Munich validated
Season over. Next expected start ~29 Mar 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 21 Mar 2027 – 4 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~36 days (measured in Sweden).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 3.97 days; 74% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±6.42 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Sweet cherry blossom in Munich validated
Season over. Next expected start ~16 Apr 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 8 Apr 2027 – 26 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~13 days.
Backtested against 9 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 3.11 days; 78% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±3.53 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 9 years at this city (1992–2010).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Horse chestnut in Munich validated
Season over. Next expected start ~4 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 25 Apr 2027 – 10 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
Backtested against 35 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 2.43 days; 91% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.82 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 35 years at this city (1991–2025).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
“Start” = first flowers open (BBCH 60), not the peak. Peak is usually later; we have no open peak data. Individual gardens differ by ±4–8 days from the city median. See How it works and Sources.