Örebro Sweden
Expected first-bloom dates for spring 2027, based on a degree-day temperature model and years of observations. 16 Oct 2026 status shown.
| Flower | Status today | Expected start | Likely range | Reliability | Model error (backtest) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lilac | Season over | ~22 May 2027 | 14 May – 27 May | validated | 2.07 d |
| Forsythia | Season over | ~17 Apr 2027 | 8 Apr – 1 May | approximate | n/a |
| Wood anemone | Season over | ~12 Apr 2027 | 2 Apr – 24 Apr | approximate | 5.27 d |
| Sweet cherry blossom | Season over | ~6 May 2027 | 28 Apr – 14 May | validated | 1.96 d |
| Horse chestnut | Season over | ~22 May 2027 | 15 May – 27 May | approximate | n/a |
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Lilac in Örebro validated
Season over. Next expected start ~22 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 14 May 2027 – 27 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~20 days.
Backtested against 14 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 2.07 days; 93% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±3.46 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 14 years at this city (2011–2024).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Forsythia in Örebro approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~17 Apr 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 8 Apr 2027 – 1 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
No (or far too few) usable open observations in this country for this flower; the model parameters were fitted on German data and transferred and are unchecked here. In our lilac test, transferring the German model to Sweden was off by about 4 days on average (bias about +3.8 days). Model parameters: transferred from Germany.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): not measured.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): not measured. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 0 years at this city.
No local observation series to show for this flower here.
Wood anemone in Örebro approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~12 Apr 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 2 Apr 2027 – 24 Apr 2027. Expected flowering length: ~36 days.
Not called validated: backtest error 5.27 days is above our 5-day bar.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 5.27 days; 67% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±6 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 15 years at this city (2010–2024).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Sweet cherry blossom in Örebro validated
Season over. Next expected start ~6 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 28 Apr 2027 – 14 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~16 days.
Backtested against 13 years of local observations at this city (leave-one-year-out); the model beat simple climatology.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): 1.96 days; 92% of years within ±5 days.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): ±5.61 days. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 13 years at this city (2011–2023).
Observed first-bloom date by year (city median of observers) vs. model expectation:
Horse chestnut in Örebro approximate
Season over. Next expected start ~22 May 2027. Likely start range (80% of past weather years): 15 May 2027 – 27 May 2027. Expected flowering length: ~14 days (assumed, not measured).
No (or far too few) usable open observations in this country for this flower; the model parameters were fitted on German data and transferred and are unchecked here. In our lilac test, transferring the German model to Sweden was off by about 4 days on average (bias about +3.8 days). Model parameters: transferred from Germany.
- Typical error if the weather were known (model backtest, MAE): not measured.
- Typical error of a long-range estimate like this one (spread of past years at this city, MAE): not measured. Months ahead, the weather is unknown, so expect about this much.
- Observations used: 2 years at this city (2015–2016).
No local observation series to show for this flower here.
“Start” = first flowers open (BBCH 60), not the peak. Peak is usually later; we have no open peak data. Individual gardens differ by ±4–8 days from the city median. See How it works and Sources.